The impact of Demand forecasting and efficient Channelization on Inventory Management for Polio Campaign in Federal Capital Territory of Pakistan .

Abstract

Pakistan despite being an atomic power is still enlisted among the two countries from which polio virus has not been eliminated fully those are Afghanistan and Nigeria. The aim of this research paper is to highlight the environmental factors that causes the failure of the polio campaign and also to determine the factors in supply chain process of polio campaign that are resulting in unsuccessful campaigns. The whole process of supply chain starting from the demand forecasting to the consumer end has been studied carefully and variables affecting the process are determined and analyzed. The factors affecting demand forecast are examined that results in sudden surge in the demand further the impact of demand forecasted is related to inventory management is also analyzed. Similarly, the channelization of the supply that depends on the factors like cold chain, logistics, stock management and communication is examined and its relationship with inventory management is also discussed. The research paper also highlights the guidelines set by international organizations like world health organization and UNICEF for smooth implementation of the entire process. These guidelines include the standard procedures related to demand forecasting, temperature range and its maintenance through whole process, logistics, cold chain, vaccine management, communication and training, monitoring and evaluation, stock management and inventory management. Apart from these guidelines and the supply chain process the research paper also address the environmental barriers that are responsible for failure in campaign these includes religious mindsets, war on terror, misconception against the vaccine, security issues and migration of people from different areas. Also, the factors that leads to the limitations of the study are also discussed.