Past trends of atmospheric variables using era interim and future projections of temperature and precipitation using statistically downscaled model CCSM4 on Murree, Pakistan (P-0822) (MFN 6339)

Abstract

Over the last few decades, climate change had become a major focus for researchers. It has caused damaging effects on human society and the natural environment. In this study, past climate trends using high resolution reanalysis data set and future climate trends of temperature and precipitation over Murree under two different RCP scenarios of a statistically downscaled CMIP5 Coupled General Circulation Model is presented in this study. The analyses are extended to annual, decadal and seasonal scale with a focus on the Summer Monsoon season. There is a positive change in mean temperature of 3.4°C under RCP 4.5 scenario and 4.3 °C under RCP 8.5 scenario till the end of this century. The analysis of decadal and monsoonal mean of temperature under both RCPs, showed a rise in temperature above the mean baseline period. The analysis of decadal and monsoonal mean of precipitation under both RCPs, also showed a slight increase from the baseline period. The seasonal cycle shows that the winters are warming more than summers with an increase in temperature about 9 to 15°C in the 21st century with respect to baseline (1979-2005). Moreover, there is a slight shift of monsoon precipitation towards October and November. The tourism sector of Murree is linked with the monthly mean of temperature, precipitation and snowfall during baseline period. The rise of temperature during the winter season has caused the tourists to delay their visit till the occurrence of snowfall.