Modelling and Analysis of CPEC Energy Power Projects Using LEAP Software (T-0427) (MFN 6204)

Abstract

Energy is the lifeline of an economy and it is a fundamental contribution to maintain all sector activities like industrial, commercial, domestic and transport. Energy shortages and energy disturbances have adversely affect social cohesion and result in loss of economic growth and employment in the society. Pakistan’s energy power sector is experiencing many demand challenges and electrical power supply gap where the current generation capacity leading to gaps of up to 4,500 – 5,500 MW. Country’s demand is increasing enormously in all sectors and in order to control the situation it is very important to decide the new power plans. The main constraint for power policy plan is to construct a forecasting model for electricity demand. In previous years; such an enormous gap has led to load shedding of 8-10 hours across the country. In the present work, long term models were developed for electricity generation expansion, cost expansion, environmental impacts and also forecasts them by using Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP model). To analyze the electricity generation expansion, three scenarios were developed which are named as Business-As-Usual (BS) scenario, Coal scenario (CS) and Renewable energy (RE) scenario. Results were evaluated on the basis of cost expansion and environmental impacts. From environmental impacts, both BS and RE scenarios are better than Coal scenario. And from cost-benefit analysis, we find that RE scenario is most expensive scenario as compared to other two scenarios. However, it is noticed that RE scenario can successfully reduce the country’s dependence on fuel imports. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has a potential to turn Pakistan into a centre of Provincial Corporation. This research is focused on by combining the results of existing energy power projects in Pakistan with CPEC energy power projects through modelling and simulations using LEAP to analyze energy, environment and climate change policies. This research provides the economic corridor to the power system planners for system growth and development in order to meet high electricity in future in Pakistan.