Exploring the Dynamics of Silence and Vulnerability in Gilgit-Baltistan, Comprehensive Analysis of Socio-Political, Economic, and Environmental Challenges in a Marginalized Region

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between silence and vulnerability in the remote mountain communities of Pakora and Koshineat, Tehsil Shounter, District Astore, GilgitBaltistan, with particular emphasis on socio-political, economic, and environmental dimensions and the development of a science-based manifesto for resilience. A mixedmethods design was employed, combining a household survey of 80 respondents with semi-structured interviews, field observation, GIS-based spatial assessment, and stakeholder consultation. The findings demonstrated that vulnerability was multidimensional and closely linked with limited information access, weak institutional engagement, climate-sensitive livelihoods, and recurrent environmental hazards. Overall, 82.5% of respondents reported limited or no access to climate information, 77.5% had no institutional contact during the previous 12 months, and 53.8% lacked access to an early warning system. Agriculture and livestock were the main livelihood source for 56.2% of respondents, while the average estimated livelihood loss was 34.9%. Environmental exposure was also substantial, with 76.2% reporting a severe hazard experience during the previous five years and 78.8% observing environmental degradation. Floods and flash floods were perceived as the most serious threat, with a mean risk score of 4.05 out of 5, while GIS assessment identified spatial concentrations of high and very high risk along stream banks, steep slopes, settlement margins, and vulnerable access routes. The study concluded that silence and vulnerability were mutually reinforcing, as weak community representation, limited information access, and poor institutional contact reduced local capacity to influence preparedness and response. Based on the integrated findings, a science-based manifesto was developed around community voice, climate information, early warning and preparedness, environmental management, livelihood resilience, institutional coordination, and evidence-based planning to strengthen resilience in remote mountain communities of Gilgit-Baltistan