The India-Pakistan Water Dispute and Its Consequences for Pakistan (2015-2025)

Abstract

Water remains one of the most critical and sensitive resources in South Asia, particularly between India and Pakistan, whose relations have been historically shaped by political rivalry and territorial disputes. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. However, changing geopolitical dynamics, India's upstream hydropower development, climate change, and growing water scarcity have increasingly strained this treaty framework. This study critically examines the Indo-Pakistan water dispute with a focus on the evolving challenges to transboundary water governance under the Indus Basin system. The research analyzes how India’s control over upstream rivers, the construction of dams and hydropower projects, and the declining spirit of cooperation have affected Pakistan’s water security, agricultural productivity, and socio-economic stability. It further explores the legal, political, and strategic dimensions of the dispute within the framework of international water law and regional power asymmetry. Special attention is given to the impacts on Pakistan’s small farmers, rural livelihoods, food security, and public health. Using a qualitative research methodology based on secondary data, official documents, treaty provisions, legal cases, and scholarly literature, the study highlights the growing politicization of water and its transformation into a tool of strategic pressure. The findings suggest that while the Indus Waters Treaty has helped prevent large-scale conflict for decades, its effectiveness is being challenged by climate-induced hydrological changes, weak dispute-resolution mechanisms, and deteriorating bilateral relations. The study concludes that sustainable peace and long-term water security in South Asia require modernization of the Indus Waters Treaty, confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan, climate-resilient water governance, and stronger regional cooperation to prevent water from becoming a trigger for future conflict.