Abstract:
Since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war which continues to ravage the two states, has changed the geopolitical dynamics with interests revolving around the Caspian Sea region. With the world now shifting to multi-polarity, alliances are also shifting. In this changing dynamic, China-Russia partnership has gained new importance and strategic depth. This study explores how the intersection of energy and geo-political interests are evolving through the lens of Complex Interdependence Theory. This theory emphasizes how states and non-state actors are connected through economic, political, and security networks. The Caspian Sea emerges as a pivotal point in light of these interests as the region is rich in resources, geographically significant, and serves interests to both Russia and China. Due to western sanctions on Russia which are aimed to cripple the Russian economy, have pushed Russia towards China to establish a stable energy market, while China is expanding its trade networks beyond Asia, far into Eastern Europe and Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative. To pursue these interests, the Chinese are investing in infrastructure and establishing deeper ties with Caspian littoral states which include Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. This convergence is reshaping trade routes, redefining regional diplomacy, and opening new economic pathways across the region. While China is steadily growing its economic footprint, Russia aims to maintain its impact in the domain of security and energy transit. The result is a complex balancing act, one that reflects the emerging multipolar world order. This research aims to highlight that though Russia and China share interests in the Caspian Region, however, their partnership comes with both strengths and weaknesses which are grounded in strategic necessity of each other yet constantly re-adjusting strategies with evolving regional realities. It highlights how energy interdependence has become a key driver of international relations and how the Caspian Region is fast becoming an example of broader global shifts in power and connectivity.
