Climate Resilient Gender-Specific Flood Management Planning Based on 2022 and Future Floods in Chail Bishigram Sub-Basin of Swat River Basin

Abstract

Floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in Pakistan, and the mountainous basins in the north of the country are most susceptible to them because of steep gradients, sensitive ecosystems, and reliance on subsistence agriculture. ChailBishigram sub-basin of the Swat River Basin is a region that is of high-risk since floods have been frequent here, and especially in the 2010 and 2022 catastrophic floods, it has caused immense damages. In the 2022 flood, Chail-Bishigram suffered severe losses with 4,100 houses damaged (96 fully), 2 shops washed away, more than 10 RCC and 8 suspension bridges, 19 irrigation channels, 450 Kanal of farmland, and 30 hatcheries destroyed. Future projections indicate that the 100-year historic flood affected 576 people, while the future floods under SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios are likely to affect 617 and 700 people by completely damaging their houses. This study explored the gender-specific flood risk in the sub-basin, through employing a combined-method (hydrology modelling and community-based surveys) to investigate the dynamics of gender-specific flood risks. Historic and future floods have been estimated using HECHMS together with CMIP-6 climate data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5) scenarios. The historic and future flood frequency has been carried out using HEC-HSSP. The analysis show that future floods will become more intense and recurring. A 100-year return period historic and futuristic floods have been hydraulically modeled using HEC-RAS. The floods impact on settlements inundation has been estimated using 100-year return period flood plains for the historic and future periods. The gender-specific flood 2022 impacts have been assessed using a wellstructured Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) of 60 respondents (30 men and 30 women) in Chail-Bishigram subbasin. It is noteworthy that there was obvious genderdifferentiated impacts of the 2022 flood in the study area. Females experienced serious problems associated with limited mobility, poor hygiene, and additional caregiving responsibilities, whereas males recognized significant economic losses due to crop failures and livestock losses. These two groups highlighted the lack of effective early warning systems and low preparedness at the community level. Based on these results, a gender inclusive flood management plan was designed, with greater emphasis on fair representation in disaster committees, better water and sanitation services, diversification of livelihoods, and enforcement of land-use planning to minimize flood related hazard exposure. The research finds that resilience in Chail-Bishigram subbasin needs not only scientifically based hydrological planning, but also socially inclusive planning which considers the differentiated vulnerabilities of men and women so that disaster risk reduction can be promoted in a just and sustainable manner.