Uncovering the Nonlinear Impact of Sectoral Growth on Carbon Footprint and Environmental Sustainability Index with Reference to Pakistan

Abstract

In this study, the transport sector in Pakistan is examined to evaluate how sectoral growth affects carbon footprints and the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) in a nonlinear way. Several macroeconomic and environmental factors, such as carbon footprints, fossil CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions per capita, urbanization (a growing population), energy consumption—and sector-specific growth metrics are examined. The research concludes: The World Bank Database was the source of quantitative data for the period 1995 to 2020. In this study, carbon footprint is the dependent variable while fossil CO2 emissions, urbanization, energy consumption and sectoral growth indicators related to transport energy use (combust of natural gas and oil/petrol), transport sector employment and value added are independent variables. Utilizing nonlinear regression analysis, descriptive statistics, and correlation matrices as tools, the study concludes that there is a clear and nonparametric relationship between sectoral growth in transport and carbon emissions. Increasing traffic energy consumption is associated with greater carbon dioxide emissions, but urbanization and energy use also play a role in easing this relationship. The findings underscore the need for policies to promote sustainable energy use and growth in the transportation sector, which play an important role in achieving environmental sustainability. This study provides important lessons for Pakistani policymakers in the pursuit of balanced economic and environmental goals. Now Pakistan is developing an integrated strategy to achieve these goals.