Assessing the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Mutual Fund Performance: A Study of Pakistan

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of macroeconomic factors on mutual fund performance in Pakistan, focusing on three key variables: interest rates, inflation rates, and GDP growth. Adopting a positivist research philosophy and a quantitative methodology, the study analyses how these indicators impact returns for both equity and fixed-income portfolios. The findings reveal that rising interest rates and inflation have a negative effect on mutual fund performance, as higher rates reduce bond prices and inflation diminishes real returns. On the other hand, GDP growth shows a positive correlation with mutual fund performance, fuelled by stronger corporate earnings, improved investor confidence, and economic expansion. The research underscores the critical role of macroeconomic variables in determining the resilience and growth of Pakistan’s mutual fund industry. The insights carry significant implications for fund managers, policymakers, and investors. Strategies such as proactive portfolio management, diversification, and innovation in fund products are identified as essential to mitigating risks associated with macroeconomic volatility. By addressing gaps in existing literature and integrating recent data, this study advances financial knowledge in emerging markets like Pakistan. Practical recommendations focus on implementing tailored investment strategies and ensuring policy support to strengthen the stability of the mutual fund sector while contributing to broader economic objectives.