Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Topo Sheet No. 43-F/10. Part of District Mansehra, Neelum and Muzaffarabad, Using Bivariate Statistical Method

Abstract

The focal of the current research work is the Earthquake of October, 2005 also known as Kashmir Earthquake, the epicenter location of the earthquake 34°29′35″N 73°37'44"Eat height of 2000 from mean sea level and 20 Km North-East from Muzaffarabad city, Azad Jammu & Kashmir, at the scale of 1:50000 Geological map of 43-F/11. Occurrence factors of Landslide hazard can be natural or manmade factors such as road cuttings, deforestations or development etc. The focus of this study is to model those landslides susceptible prone to hazard areas which in turn can help for the development, urbanization and to setting up rules or regulations to save nature and environment of the area. The techniques used in this research use the theorem of Bayes's bivariat statistic (weight of evidence) which predicts the events geographically and based on input layers and relationship of event. Using the value method, a prediction of the occurrence of the spatial location of the landslide event is established. A relationship between event of landslide and factors was studied and analyzed using Weight of Evidence method. Hence, it provided reliable results where success rate 20% area covers 80% landslides and proved that the prediction rate i.e. 40% area covers 70% landslides. Furthermore, it is determined that Muzaffarabad and Mansehra are more landslide prone area than Neelum valley