SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION OF OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATIONS IN CONTEXT OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Abstract

Geographically Pakistan is one of the most earthquake prone area in Asia. The southern side of Pakistan has been hit by some large events e.g. Awaran, Dalbandin and Gawadar. Study area of this project covers major selected earthquakes above magnitude Mw. 6. For earthquake research the recent development is the application of Outgoing Long-wave radiation (OLR). The current researches are now interested in the preearthquake distortion detection. OLR anomaly is used to detect pre-earthquake signals. The possible explanation for the cause of such anomalies is the existence of thermal outgoing radiation. This phenomenon is hypothesized to be the part of relationship between tectonic stresses and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. The prompting progression may be due to the discharge of gases such as radon from lithosphere at the region of faulting. This in turn rises the air ionization, leads to changes in the conductivity of air and a latent heat release due to condensation of ionized air. The techniques to use the OLR estimates have been developed to detect seismic precursors within OLR data prior to earthquakes, which is vitally important to sufficiently make use of OLR resources to monitor stable conditions of active faults beneath the earth and to identify the potential earthquake zones. The approach is based on monitoring the Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) at the top of atmosphere, the data being acquired by Geo stationary Satellites and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA. The results shows inspiring signs and anticipating of earthquakes. The Ziarat earthquake shows highest value of 35 w/m2 on 2nd of August at 2°x2° and 19 w/m2 at 4°x4°on same day. The Awaran earthquake show highest value of OLR anomaly of 69 w/m2 on 3rd August at 2°x2° and 51 w/m2 at 4°x4°on same day. The Pasni earthquake show highest value of OLR anomaly of 52 w/m2 on 24th January at 2°x2° and 32 w/m2 at 4°x4°on same day. The research indicates that the OLR anomalies are high near to the epicenter for an event i.e. at 2°x2°.