Interrelationship between Climate Change, Tourism, Agriculture Production and Pakistan Economy

Abstract

The research examines and evaluates how climate change would affect Pakistan's agricultural output, tourist sector, and GDP (GDP). A time frame of about 30 years, from 1990 to 2019, was employed for the analysis. To ascertain the association between climate change and other chosen factors, several techniques and experiments were applied. The Augmented Dicky-Fuller test (ADF) was used to verify the variables' integration order. A combination of stationary factors were the outcome. Boundary tests (BT) provided more evidence that there were substantial correlations between the variables. Therefore, to explore both short- and long-term resilience, we employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. It should be noted that during the aforementioned test, both the estimated long run of variables and the projected short run elasticities of lag variables were determined to be statistically significant.