MODELING AND SIMULATION OF PAKISTAN ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS FOR NEXT 30 YEARS

Abstract

In twenty first century, energy is the bloodline of social standards and economic growth. Pakistan, a developing nation, with growing population is striving hard to fulfill its energy requirements in sustainable manner. Energy sector is both capital and time intensive. Thus appropriate long term planning is needed to avoid any demand-supply gaps. This research work thus explores long term demands and supplies of Pakistan power sectors for 2017-2047 using Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP). The model based on datasets of past from Pakistan Energy Year Book and NEPRA reports, projects future for three decades using multiple scenario tools. In Reference scenario, the electricity demand is projected to grow from 95.53 thousand GWh to 279.8 thousands GWh in 2030 and 1272.6 thousands GWh in 2047. The domestic is main contributors followed by commercial. On supply side, the total current generation of electricity 123.4 thousands GWh increases to total of 358 thousands GWh by 2030 and 480.3 thousands GWh by 2047. The generation capacities as per planned additions would suffice the demand till 2035. However, the long term demands are exceeding the supply sides. Thus serious consideration of long term planning is essential. Other scenario considering lower, medium and higher growth compared with reference case were also developed. An additional scenario for renewable energy and thermal injections are developed. The results show promising fiscal benefits. REE injection can significantly reduce the cost of generation and replace the adverse effects of coal injection in long term. In wake of above findings, it is recommended to plan for renewable energy injection particularly wind, solar and hydro to compensate for the environmental impacts of coal projects and lower the tariff.