Abstract:
In twenty first century, energy is the bloodline of social standards and economic growth. Pakistan,
a developing nation, with growing population is striving hard to fulfill its energy requirements in
sustainable manner. Energy sector is both capital and time intensive. Thus appropriate long term
planning is needed to avoid any demand-supply gaps. This research work thus explores long term
demands and supplies of Pakistan power sectors for 2017-2047 using Long Range Energy
Alternative Planning (LEAP). The model based on datasets of past from Pakistan Energy Year
Book and NEPRA reports, projects future for three decades using multiple scenario tools.
In Reference scenario, the electricity demand is projected to grow from 95.53 thousand GWh to
279.8 thousands GWh in 2030 and 1272.6 thousands GWh in 2047. The domestic is main
contributors followed by commercial. On supply side, the total current generation of electricity
123.4 thousands GWh increases to total of 358 thousands GWh by 2030 and 480.3 thousands GWh
by 2047. The generation capacities as per planned additions would suffice the demand till 2035.
However, the long term demands are exceeding the supply sides. Thus serious consideration of
long term planning is essential. Other scenario considering lower, medium and higher growth
compared with reference case were also developed. An additional scenario for renewable energy
and thermal injections are developed. The results show promising fiscal benefits. REE injection
can significantly reduce the cost of generation and replace the adverse effects of coal injection in
long term. In wake of above findings, it is recommended to plan for renewable energy injection
particularly wind, solar and hydro to compensate for the environmental impacts of coal projects
and lower the tariff.
