Asymmetric Impact of Oil and Gold Prices on Stock Market Returns in Pakistan. New Evidence with Asymptomatic ARDL Model

Abstract

This study investigates the context of Pakistan, the influence that the price of gold and oil have on the returns of the 100 index that is traded on the Pakistan stock exchange. The asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) mode is applied to the monthly time series data spanning from January 2000 to December 2021 in order to accomplish this goal. The range of this analysis is from 2000 to 2021. In addition, the research considers the time span beginning in January 2000 and ending in December 2021. A positive shock in gold prices has been shown to have a favorable influence on the returns of the 100 stock index, whilst a negative shock has been shown to have a deleterious effect on the returns of the stock market. These findings are based on the findings of the asymmetric ARDL model. The findings of the oil prices, on the other hand, imply that there is an asymmetric impact on the returns that are witnessed on the stock market in Pakistan.