US- China Trade War and its Impact on Pakistan Exports

Abstract

Trade war between two biggest economies is leaving numerous effect all over the world. China and United States of America both are trading partner with Pakistan and as a developing country Pakistan economy is most vulnerable toward trade war between US and china. This research .is attempt to find the effects of trade war on Pakistan Exp01is. There are number of study and research paper describing and finding the impact of trade war on different factors but the purpose of my research is to present a real picture of Pakistani exports and how much Pakistan is getting benefit from this trade war and which country is leaving positive effects on Pakistan exposit. This research is based on the "Event" so I try my best to develop a model from which I can present the true picture of before and after event effects and which country is creating more exports opportunity for Pakistan. This study is carried out using Panel Least Square technique (of Ordinary Least Square OLS of regression) on 2 model also a hypothesis testing model is used to compare the results. Pakistan Exports as a dependent variable and US and China as independent Variable, 25 years of data is used from 1994 - 2019 almost more than 15 years of data before trade war is used to check the vulnerability of Pakistani exports towards tariff imposition by two superpowers. A hypothesis testing is also used to compare which country (China or Unites States of America) is exporting more from Pakistan after trade war. OLS (Ordinary Least Square) application is use because it helps me to estimates the trends of Pakistani exposit with Tariffs rates imposed by US and China. According to the results, Pakistan exports increased with china as compare to Unites state of America. The result of all the models is significant from test of fits. All the results intimations are however in alignment with respective finance and economic theories.