Abstract:
Climate change is viewed as a multidimensional wonder, it has different
ramifications for environment, living things and financial states of the general
population of different people. Planners, vulnerable communities, investors
require information and data aboutfuture atmosphere with the goal thatthey can
plan for expected patterns and changes in it.
Atmospheric predictions and expectations are the assessments of
common conditions in the near future, whereas climate and atmosphere
projections are the evaluations of the climate of the future and is under the
presumptions ofthe future activities ofthe humans, which involves technical and
financial developments.
Concentrating on the effects and impacts and amid the reason of it
occurring, the primary goal ofthis exploration was to examine the progressions
and its effects in the Pakistan's atmosphere and environment by using the time
series data. The changes in climate and the different variances of a particular
region of Pakistan over a period of 115 years ranging from 1900 to 2015 were
estimated and was further classified in multiple variables concerning to the
climate involving temperature and rainfall.
Different studies are available on the subject of change in climate its
evaluation, modelling and its effects and its adaptations accordingly. So a
multidisciplinary approach is being utilized on the data with a time series pattern
to achieve a better understanding and predicting the points in future by analysing
the changes in previous times by estimation of the absolute change through a
combination ofmultiple parameters which is determined by least AIC score.
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used
determine the trends in the previous data to determine the different parameters
manually to fit the model accordingly, and try to validate and predicting the
forecasted climate for the coming years.
